Top 10 Disruptive Technologies
June 17, 2008 | By Joel Dehlin | 8 Comments
Last month, Gartner identified the top 10 disruptive technologies for 2008 - 2012. And the list is pretty accurate:
- Multicore and hybrid processors
- Virtualisation and fabric computing
- Social networks and social software
- Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
- Web mashups
- User Interface
- Ubiquitous computing
- Contextual computing
- Augmented reality
- Semantics
We’re already trying to figure out how to deal with some of this stuff. Disruptive? Yes. Scary? Definitely. How does a CIO (or IT manager) deal with, embrace or hold off new technologies?
Virtualization is a great example. In our data centers we face the same problems most I.T. shops do: not enough power or cooling. Answer? Virtualization! We’re virtualizing servers with technology built into IBM’s AIX platform and also with VMWare.
The plus is that it’s easier to get servers stood up, each server is cheaper and the utilization is much higher overall. This saves on both power and cooling which is the original problem. The downside is that servers are so easy to requisition that they proliferate like wildfire. Without strong change management processes it can get crazy. And the management tools for virtualized servers aren’t mature enough yet. It’s clear we’re getting value out of virtualization, but is it worth the challenges it presents? I think so; I wish I were more sure.
Web mashups are another interesting one. Users are hurling their data out from the corporate firewall onto the Internet and using various web mashups to create interesting new apps. It’s great for the end-user! But the I.T. professional is having fits with security, code management, etc.
All of these new technologies bring both promise and pain. The job of the CIO and the I.T. professional is to understand them and help our business partners see the potential and recognize the risks.
What a fun time to be in information technology!
Lincoln Cannon said...
. . . and given the current trend in the rate of technological change, we should expect yet greater change in yet shorter periods of time subsequent to 2012. For several decades, we’ve observed a periodic doubling of the ratio of complexity to cost of computing components (Moore’s Law). More recently, we’ve observed a similar exponential rate of change in biotech, as biological science has converged with information technology. Other technological fields are also beginning to manifest the effects of such convergence.
It is not enough for us as IT managers, or even as a culture or civilization, to figure out how to manage the specific technological changes at hand. It will not be enough to realize the rewards of one particular technology or mitigate the risks of another. Too much will change too quickly. We must rise to a higher level and learn to manage technology in the abstract. As we become more familiar with the technological phenomenon itself, we may be able to predict and control it more broadly and effectively.
We must. The alternative, as you point out, is disruptive and frightening, at least.
June 17, 2008 8:13 pm #
Kay Uneaux said...
Please keep in mind that futurists who write articles about disruptive technologies are usually a year or two behind.
I think it was either Cuban or Cringely who recently had a great blog about Gartner’s relevance in the next 5 years…
What’s the line about a bandwagon? By the time you see it coming, it’s already full?
June 17, 2008 10:19 pm #
jrj said...
Multi-core processors & GPU utilization for generic processing is really fascinating stuff. The language constructs behind this are very interesting as well. Here’s a link re: a standardization effort that is just getting underway:
http://www.khronos.org/news/press/releases/khronos_launches_heterogeneous_computing_initiative/
June 17, 2008 11:19 pm #
David said...
“How does a CIO (or IT manager) deal with, embrace or hold off new technologies?”
I think that the best way for CIO’s and IT managers to deal with the new technologies is to have a default policy of embracing them. Taking a wait-and-see approach prevents you from being able to participate in how they end up getting used. If the default is to embrace the new technology then you are ahead of the curve in finding ways to integrate and use them appropriately for your organization.
Holding them off is hard, but molding their use within the organization is easier if you are at the forefront of using them.
June 18, 2008 11:05 am #
Steven Whittaker said...
I am a bit suprised that mobile computing didnt make the list.
June 18, 2008 4:07 pm #
Joel Dehlin said...
Steven. Yeah, it’s a little weird. I think they’re wrapping that up in ubiquitous computing, user interface and social networks, but it probably deserves its own spot.
Kay. Good point. We’re facing many of these issues right now. It’s frightening to think of what’s sneaking up on us!
June 18, 2008 7:36 pm #
Greg M. said...
What caught my eye in this post is Gartner’s use of the phrase “disruptive technologies”. The idea that technology can be “disruptive” goes back to Geoffrey A. Moore’s Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers, first published in 1991. It was pretty much required reading in Silicon Valley for marketing professionals during the early to mid-1990’s and essentially coined the term “disruptive technologies” in the high-tech community.
Having spent most if not all of my career in marketing and sales on the vendor side of the vendor/IT equation, this book provides various strategies that high-tech companies employ to help mitigate IT reluctance in adopting these types of technologies.
Moore’s other books such as Inside the Tornado: Strategies for Developing, Leveraging and Surviving Hypergrowth Markets, and Dealing with Darwin: How Great Companies Innovate at Every Phase of Their Evolution all provide valuable insight into how truly “innovative” companies become and stay relevant to their customers.
June 19, 2008 10:17 am #
Wellington Badu said...
Hi Joe,
I´m a TSR from Brazil Area. We were invited by you to participate on your blog once, so, here I am.
I am concerned in how apply any of these technologies to the organizations and take real advantage of them. At least those ones promised by their creators. Some like virtualization can bring results but have to be monitored as you pointed.
Sometimes many things are implemented but don´t bring real results or the results are consumed by problems after implementation. These are the risks but in many cases the resources go first.
June 21, 2008 10:05 pm #