Comments on: Top 10 Disruptive Technologies

By: Bryan B.

Bryan B. — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 02:12:49 +0000

I must take some issue, although little, with David’s comment. As an IT Director in public education and left with meager budgets I’ve learned the wisdom in being prudent. We all want to keep up with the leading edge, but being on the bleeding edge can be not only expensive but hard to support. Without proper technical support and rapidly changing technologies, sometimes you run the risk of investing in technologies not only hard to support but those that quickly go out of style again.

With that in mind there must be good change practices in place that allow change to flow, but also be kept in line with organizational direction and policies.

By: Wellington Badu

Wellington Badu — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 05:05:53 +0000

Hi Joe,

I´m a TSR from Brazil Area. We were invited by you to participate on your blog once, so, here I am.

I am concerned in how apply any of these technologies to the organizations and take real advantage of them. At least those ones promised by their creators. Some like virtualization can bring results but have to be monitored as you pointed.

Sometimes many things are implemented but don´t bring real results or the results are consumed by problems after implementation. These are the risks but in many cases the resources go first.

By: Greg M.

Greg M. — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:17:24 +0000

What caught my eye in this post is Gartner's use of the phrase "disruptive technologies". The idea that technology can be "disruptive" goes back to Geoffrey A. Moore's Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers, first published in 1991. It was pretty much required reading in Silicon Valley for marketing professionals during the early to mid-1990's and essentially coined the term "disruptive technologies" in the high-tech community. Having spent most if not all of my career in marketing and sales on the vendor side of the vendor/IT equation, this book provides various strategies that high-tech companies employ to help mitigate IT reluctance in adopting these types of technologies. Moore's other books such as Inside the Tornado: Strategies for Developing, Leveraging and Surviving Hypergrowth Markets, and Dealing with Darwin: How Great Companies Innovate at Every Phase of Their Evolution all provide valuable insight into how truly "innovative" companies become and stay relevant to their customers.

By: Joel Dehlin

Joel Dehlin — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 02:36:47 +0000

Steven. Yeah, it’s a little weird. I think they’re wrapping that up in ubiquitous computing, user interface and social networks, but it probably deserves its own spot.

Kay. Good point. We’re facing many of these issues right now. It’s frightening to think of what’s sneaking up on us!

By: Steven Whittaker

Steven Whittaker — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 23:07:39 +0000

I am a bit suprised that mobile computing didnt make the list.

By: David

David — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 18:05:05 +0000

“How does a CIO (or IT manager) deal with, embrace or hold off new technologies?”

I think that the best way for CIO’s and IT managers to deal with the new technologies is to have a default policy of embracing them. Taking a wait-and-see approach prevents you from being able to participate in how they end up getting used. If the default is to embrace the new technology then you are ahead of the curve in finding ways to integrate and use them appropriately for your organization.

Holding them off is hard, but molding their use within the organization is easier if you are at the forefront of using them.

By: jrj

jrj — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 06:19:08 +0000

Multi-core processors & GPU utilization for generic processing is really fascinating stuff. The language constructs behind this are very interesting as well. Here’s a link re: a standardization effort that is just getting underway:
http://www.khronos.org/news/press/releases/khronos_launches_heterogeneous_computing_initiative/

By: Kay Uneaux

Kay Uneaux — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 05:19:16 +0000

Please keep in mind that futurists who write articles about disruptive technologies are usually a year or two behind.

I think it was either Cuban or Cringely who recently had a great blog about Gartner’s relevance in the next 5 years…

What’s the line about a bandwagon? By the time you see it coming, it’s already full?

By: Lincoln Cannon

Lincoln Cannon — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 03:13:29 +0000

. . . and given the current trend in the rate of technological change, we should expect yet greater change in yet shorter periods of time subsequent to 2012. For several decades, we’ve observed a periodic doubling of the ratio of complexity to cost of computing components (Moore’s Law). More recently, we’ve observed a similar exponential rate of change in biotech, as biological science has converged with information technology. Other technological fields are also beginning to manifest the effects of such convergence.

It is not enough for us as IT managers, or even as a culture or civilization, to figure out how to manage the specific technological changes at hand. It will not be enough to realize the rewards of one particular technology or mitigate the risks of another. Too much will change too quickly. We must rise to a higher level and learn to manage technology in the abstract. As we become more familiar with the technological phenomenon itself, we may be able to predict and control it more broadly and effectively.

We must. The alternative, as you point out, is disruptive and frightening, at least.